KNOWING YOUR ENEMIES: Intention Assessment and the Prospect of East Asian Security
CONVENORS
Prof. Dr. Michael Lackner (IKGF)
Prof. Dr. Marc A. Matten (University of Erlangen)
Prof. Dr. Chi-yu Shih (National Taiwan University)
Prof. Dr. Tze-ki Hon (SUNY, Geneseo)
Mingde Wang M.A. (University of Erlangen)
June 23-24, 2014
Erlangen, Germany
Will history repeat the great conflicts of the twentieth century? Can humankind overcome the circularity of the anarchical international system? The aim of this workshop is to advance scholarly understanding of intention assessment—the central component of how states cope with uncertainty and the future in the context of Asia-Pacific security. This workshop will also foster a constructive exchange between the Social Sciences and the Humanities with respect to research strategies regarding the ultimate question about how to cope with the future in the sphere of international politics.
Programme
June 23
| 09:15 a.m. | Welcome Addresses Michael Lackner (Director KHC, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
PANEL 1: AGENCY, STRUCTURE, AND THEORIZATION OF INTENTION |
|
| 09:30 a.m. | Human Nature, Intentionality, and
Prediction in IR Mingde Wang (Chinese Studies, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) Discussant: Todd Hall |
| 10:00 a.m. | Intentions, Time Horizons, and the
Rise of China David Edelstein (Government, Georgetown University) Discussant: Giulio Pugliese |
| 11:00 a.m. | Coffee Break |
| 11:20 a.m. | Discussion Session Chair: Tze-ki Hon |
| 12:20 p.m. | Lunch Break |
PANEL 2: ADVANCES IN THE METHODS OF ANALYZING INTENTION |
|
| 2:15 p.m. | Content Analysis Software and its
Application to the Study of China's
International Relations: Chinese Media
and the Yasukuni Shrine Issue Edward Griffith (East Asian Studies, University of Leeds) |
| 2:45 p.m. | Assessing the Security Intentions of Chinese
Leaders with Cognitive Mapping Michael Young (Social Science Automation) |
| 3:15 p.m. | Issues in Multilingual Content Analysis - One
Tool and a Case Study of Intention in Chinese Doug Fuller (Social Science Automation) |
| 3:45 p.m. | Coffee Break |
| 4:00 p.m. | Discussion Session Chair: Mingde Wang |
| 5:00 p.m. | End of 1st Day |
June 24
PANEL 3: HOW STATES ASSESS INTENTIONS - THE INTERWAR LESSONS |
|
| 10:00 a.m. | Friend and Foe in 20th Century East Asia Marc Matten (Chinese Studies, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) Discussants: (1st) Ria Chae; (2nd) Lu Zhao (PhD, EALC, University of Pennsylvania) |
| 10:30 a.m. | From Trust to Mistrust:
The Sino-Japanese Relations, 1911-1937 Tze-ki Hon (History, State University of New York-Geneseo) Discussants: (1st) Lu Zhao; (2nd) Liselotte Odgaard (Strategy, Royal Danish Defense College) |
| 11:00 a.m. | The Lessons of 1914 for East Asia Today:
Missing the Trees for the Forest? Todd Hall (Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford) Discussant: David Edelstein (University of Göttingen) |
| 11:30 a.m. | Coffee Break |
| 11:45 a.m. | Discussion Session Chair: Chi-yu Shih |
| 12:45 p.m. | Lunch Break |
PANEL 4: HOW STATES ASSESS INTENTIONS - THE COLD WAR AND AFTER |
|
| 2:30 p.m. | From a Pen to an Axe: A Case-Study of Inter-Korean Relations during the Sino-American Rapprochement in the 1970s Ria Chae (International Studies, Seoul National University) Discussant: Liselotte Odgaard |
| 3:00 p.m. | Waiting for the Red Tide:
The Japanese Communist Party, the Soviet
Union and the Fear of "Violent Revolution" in Early Cold War Japan, 1949-1952 Sherzod Muminov (East Asian Studies, University of Cambridge) Discussant: Marc Matten |
| 3:30 p.m. | Perception, Personality and Abe Shinzo's China
Policy: A Neo-Classical Realist Perspective Giulio Pugliese (East Asian Studies, University of Cambridge) Discussant: (1st) Chi-yu Shih; (2nd) David Edelstein |
| 4:00 p.m. | Coffee Break |
| 4:15 p.m. | Discussion Session Chair: Simon Koschut |
| 5:15 p.m. | End of 2nd Day |