Workshop

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KNOWING YOUR ENEMIES: Intention Assessment and the Prospect of East Asian Security

CONVENORS

Prof. Dr. Michael Lackner (IKGF)
Prof. Dr. Marc A. Matten (University of Erlangen)
Prof. Dr. Chi-yu Shih (National Taiwan University)
Prof. Dr. Tze-ki Hon (SUNY, Geneseo)
Mingde Wang M.A. (University of Erlangen)

June 23-24, 2014
Erlangen, Germany


Will history repeat the great conflicts of the twentieth century? Can humankind overcome the circularity of the anarchical international system? The aim of this workshop is to advance scholarly understanding of intention assessment—the central component of how states cope with uncertainty and the future in the context of Asia-Pacific security. This workshop will also foster a constructive exchange between the Social Sciences and the Humanities with respect to research strategies regarding the ultimate question about how to cope with the future in the sphere of international politics.

Programme

June 23

09:15 a.m. Welcome Addresses
Michael Lackner (Director KHC, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg)

PANEL 1: AGENCY, STRUCTURE, AND THEORIZATION OF INTENTION
09:30 a.m. Human Nature, Intentionality, and Prediction in IR
Mingde Wang (Chinese Studies, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg)
Discussant: Todd Hall
10:00 a.m. Intentions, Time Horizons, and the Rise of China
David Edelstein (Government, Georgetown University)
Discussant: Giulio Pugliese
11:00 a.m. Coffee Break
11:20 a.m. Discussion Session
Chair: Tze-ki Hon
12:20 p.m. Lunch Break

PANEL 2: ADVANCES IN THE METHODS OF ANALYZING INTENTION
2:15 p.m. Content Analysis Software and its Application to the Study of China's International Relations: Chinese Media and the Yasukuni Shrine Issue
Edward Griffith (East Asian Studies, University of Leeds)
2:45 p.m. Assessing the Security Intentions of Chinese Leaders with Cognitive Mapping
Michael Young (Social Science Automation)
3:15 p.m. Issues in Multilingual Content Analysis - One Tool and a Case Study of Intention in Chinese
Doug Fuller (Social Science Automation)
3:45 p.m. Coffee Break
4:00 p.m. Discussion Session
Chair: Mingde Wang
5:00 p.m. End of 1st Day

June 24


PANEL 3: HOW STATES ASSESS INTENTIONS - THE INTERWAR LESSONS
10:00 a.m. Friend and Foe in 20th Century East Asia
Marc Matten (Chinese Studies, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg)
Discussants: (1st) Ria Chae; (2nd) Lu Zhao (PhD, EALC, University of Pennsylvania)
10:30 a.m. From Trust to Mistrust: The Sino-Japanese Relations, 1911-1937
Tze-ki Hon (History, State University of New York-Geneseo)
Discussants: (1st) Lu Zhao; (2nd) Liselotte Odgaard (Strategy, Royal Danish Defense College)
11:00 a.m. The Lessons of 1914 for East Asia Today: Missing the Trees for the Forest?
Todd Hall (Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford)
Discussant: David Edelstein (University of Göttingen)
11:30 a.m. Coffee Break
11:45 a.m. Discussion Session
Chair: Chi-yu Shih
12:45 p.m. Lunch Break

PANEL 4: HOW STATES ASSESS INTENTIONS - THE COLD WAR AND AFTER
2:30 p.m. From a Pen to an Axe: A Case-Study of Inter-Korean Relations during the Sino-American Rapprochement in the 1970s
Ria Chae (International Studies, Seoul National University)
Discussant: Liselotte Odgaard
3:00 p.m. Waiting for the Red Tide: The Japanese Communist Party, the Soviet Union and the Fear of "Violent Revolution" in Early Cold War Japan, 1949-1952
Sherzod Muminov (East Asian Studies, University of Cambridge)
Discussant: Marc Matten
3:30 p.m. Perception, Personality and Abe Shinzo's China Policy: A Neo-Classical Realist Perspective
Giulio Pugliese (East Asian Studies, University of Cambridge)
Discussant: (1st) Chi-yu Shih; (2nd) David Edelstein
4:00 p.m. Coffee Break
4:15 p.m. Discussion Session
Chair: Simon Koschut
5:15 p.m. End of 2nd Day

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